Saturday Slam #3

Race 1 selection - CAITLYN'S RAIDER
This is really a competitive race so demand value here. We believe our pick is sitting on a big effort. She paced in :54 and change last year at Sarnia, and is steadily (albeit slowly) gaining her form. It's her 9th start of the year and quite frankly, she has struggled in 2009. Two starts back, she shot to the lead and was pressured virtually every step. She had every right to tire Last week, she couldn't overcome the poor post coupled with the soft pace set early. There are some sharpies in here, so would not take a shot at her under 6-1.

Race 2 selection - LILA MAY
She is the class of the race, and in the bottom cond level at this racetrack, class usually prevails. Her form isn't awful, although she certainly isn't at the top of her game. Not quite sure why she backed up last week. Can guarantee however that she won't see 56.4 to the half this time around. She is fairly versatile in racing style and figures by my calculations to be too tough for these. Underneath plays include Dreamy Amanda, who isn't sporting sharpness but did improve times wise last week in her 2nd start of 2009. Also CF Mo Zo Raider has back class as well, but that last effort is going to scare some people off. Including me.

Race 3 selection - DANGEROUS TIDE
Mixed signals here but if he is ready to go, he is going to be awfully tough to beat. For much of April, he was battling Inviters in Indiana. Upon his return to Hazel, he was only 1/2 length away at the top of the stretch in our Invite, but then completely collapsed in the stretch to the tune of 11.5 lengths. Now he is in for a $20,000 tag. So to sum it up, he is facing easier and gets first time Wallis. What kind of value we are looking at is probably in the neighborhood of 8-5.

Race 4 selection - ANNIE ANNIE OAKLEY
She dominated this class last week and she is right back in. This barn are masters of classification and she is without a doubt in a spot where is a probable winner. It was a generous 2-1 last week and there is no way that will be the case tonight. Probably looking at even money at best. Will have to get imaginitive underneath and maybe the 3YO filly Getaboardnow can be a player from post 9.

Race 5 selection - THE OTHER SIDE
This is a masterful job of classification by Trainer Mike Watson here. His last 3 starts, The Other Side has paced in straight NW2. He gets the win last out, and instead of going to a very tough NW3M4, she is placed in a relatively soft cond/claimer. This becomes a pretty soft spot for her, and she is definitly the one to beat. Bad news is value is not going to be there, so we must look to help the price by way of gimmicks. ML Gambler is a must use underneath.

Race 6 selection - LOTTA LIGHTNING
This horse has really made tremendous strides in 2 of his last 3 starts for Clay Jr. He raced big last week in a tough loss to a real nice horse Doc's Awesome. He is right back in 4 short days later which lends creedence to our theory that he is sharp as a tack. This is strictly a form play, as he has zero back class, so we'll have to have at least 6-1 out of the deal. The probable favorites are not very sharp.

Race 7 selection - ARMBRO BILLOW
This is going to be a great Invitational. You have some real sharp class hikers in here (Lead the Stampede and Prince Val). You also have the usual contenders (The Admiral and Bobnoxious). And who I think is the dominant male at this time, Armbro Billow. When he is sharp, he is extremely sharp and he wins his races in bunches. I was impressed with both of his last races, and hopefully the week off won't dull his super sharp form. We won't have to wait long for The Admiral to explode, and Bobnoxious is only $19,500 shy of being a millionaire. It's going to be a good one!!

Race 8 selection - MEGA CHIPS
This pick is almost like deja vu with our race 6 pick. This is a form play only because there isn't much back class to speak of. But man is he ultra sharp. He won in convincing fashion in his last 2 starts and Wally had a handful both times. This is a Mega (no pun intended) class hike however it isn't the toughest high end Open I've seen. Stonebridge Magnum is a complete mystery. Solid 3YO stakes season and is making his 4YO debut. The qua was super strong but he is out in post 9. You would think he would need the race but if the odds are high, he is worth a long look.

Race 9 selection - SF DECATHLON
I am going to make a prediction here. Whoever gets the pocket trip behind the dominant speed will win this race. I racked my brain trying to figure out who it would be and I arrived on SF Decathlon. He left in 2 of his last 3 and the time he didn't he was in post 1. Wally is the new driver. Plus, he finished 3rd in the tougher of 2 divisions of that race last week. The horse that beat him last week is our pick to win race 8.

Race 10 selection - JATE'S IDEAL
Now this is going to be entertaining. We are really scared of Shark Dressed Man here. In a needed start, SDM blasted out to the front, set a fierce pace, and tired a little as he figured to do. With a start under his belt, he could be a monster in here. Jate's Ideal gets first time Wallis. He has continued to improve week in and week out and he fits the same class, so no Open as of yet for him. Maybe we'll get some value here with SDM in the race.

Race 11 selection - INFORM
Boy do we love our pick in here. He was closing fast from the rail last week into what was a very slow opening half. He is well placed in these claiming ranks and guess what FIRST TIME WALLIS!! 9-2 would be a straight up gift. Blue Time Bayou makes his Hazel debut, and Holzman horses are red RED hot right now. Armbro Beijing is in the hunt as well.

Race 12 selection - RAIDER'S ROCKY
It is the bottom cond level and we are going for back class. It was just last year that our pick realed off a 55.3 showing over this oval. He has yet to hit the top 2 in 9 tries this year, but really didn't race to bad in a level up last out. With as soft as this field is, lets go with the class dropper here.